Domestic markets continued moving with the data released.


The currency continues to fluctuate, which was regressed after the release of Andrew Brunson. According to Turkey Statistical Institute data released on Monday, the three-month period (June-July-August) of unemployment in Turkey increased to 10.8. Data of Turkey Statistical Institute (TSI), in July aged 15 and above, the number of unemployed increased by 88 thousand persons compared to the same period in last year. In July, non-agricultural unemployment rate was estimated as 12.9 percent. In the young population (15-24), the unemployment rate fell by 1.2 percentage points and come to 19.9 percent. In the 15-64 age groups, it increased by 0.1 percentages points and come to 11 percent. In July period, the number of employed persons increased by 507 thousand persons compared to the same period of the previous year and reached 29 million 265 thousand, employment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points and settled to 48.2 percent. TUIK data released on Monday revealed that the Producer Price Index of agricultural products increased by 3.68 percent in September compared to the previous month. TUIK data also showed that the Producer Price Index for the annual agricultural products increased by 8.48 percent in September compared to December of the previous year and increased by 16.09 percent compared to the same month of the previous year and 11.59 percent on annual averages. Also, in the domestic markets, industrial production data released were also effective on Tuesday. Industrial production increased by 1.7 percent in August compared to the same month of the previous year. It decreased by 1.1 percent compared to July.

With the effect of developments in the end of Tuesday transactions are; dollar is the lowest in the range of 5.77 - 5.78 pounds after seeing the lowest 5,7601 TL and the highest 5.8076 TL; euro was in the range of 6.69 to 6.10 pounds after seeing the lowest 6.6814 TL and the highest ratio 6.7322 TL; starling was in the range of 7.63-7.64 TL after seeing the lowest 7.6386 TL and the highest ratio 7.6733.

The new applications of various companies were effective in the crypto-currency markets in the second day of the week. Sony announced that they will pass to blockchain technology in the digital rights management (DRM) system. In a statement from Sony, Sony and Sony Global Education data prepared verification, sharing and management of a system that will provide blockchain technology framework was specified. Coinbase, one of the world's leading cryptocurrency exchanges, announced that opened a branch in Dublin. The company's statement said the Dublin branch was opened to meet the demand in the European Union (EU) and to ensure that the company could carry out all its operations in the event of an uncontrolled Brexit between the UK and the EU. After the developments in the evening Bitcoin, the determinant of the crypto-currency market, dropped to $ 6,604 and four highest crypto volume currencies fell. The market volume was calculated as 211 billion 672 million dollars. In the context of global developments, the US and Trump administration's "Firstly America" policy was on the agenda. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, former President of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), said “If US President Donald Trump's administration withdraws from global affairs, this situation creates chaos.” Rasmussen said in an interview with CNBC, Only US has global power to provide international law and order.

He continued: “Despite this, the US president's decision to withdraw from the issue has made things more difficult. Trump has decided to withdraw from global issues, and so chaos has emerged worldwide. The world needs to be led now and only the US can provide this leadership.”

According to a statement from Google, while the commercial tensions between the US and China continues, US senators announced that it is evaluating to serve in China again. The statement said that if Google served in China again, the country would not adapt to the strict censorship policy, but it had several alternatives.

Crypto currencies markets had a difficult week with new explanations from institutions.

Bitcoin, which reached $ 20,000 in December 2017, fell below $ 6,500 after the statements from various institutions and individuals in the crypto-currency markets.  

Russian Central Bank President Elvira Nabiullina noted that the failed ICO (Initial Coin Offering) and blockchain projects have made investors more careful than before. Technologies like Blockchain used to be a big challenge for investors, but now we think investors are approaching these technologies more cautiously.

Indian Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg announced that he is trying to present a law for prohibiting non-governmental crypto currencies.

Positive news about cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies were also on the agenda. The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation announced that they will co-operate with the US-based blockchain company Ripple and its digital payments company Coil to offer financial access for underdeveloped societies without bank access.

According to data from China, in global markets, under the influence of the trade war with the United States, the country's economic growth was realized as 6.5 percent in the third quarter of the year, for the first time since the first quarter of 2009. According to data from the Chinese National Statistical Office, the Chinese economy grew by 1.6 percent in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.  Retail sales yearly increased 9.2 percent in September. Assets investments have increased by 5.4 percent since the beginning of the year.

The slowdown in Chinese economic growth has been influential in the commercial tensions with the US. US Trade Minister Wilbur Ross said commercial negotiations were suspended between US and China. He added: “I don't know if I can say this deadlock. As in every negotiation, there are conflicts in this situation, sometimes there are pauses and sometimes active negotiations continued. Right now, we need to give pause to our negotiation.”

In the global markets, a mixed course was observed throughout the week due to commercial tensions. The World Trade Organization (WTO) warned that the global trade system could be dragged into the crisis and could lose millions of jobs if the politicians did not take steps to reduce the tension between the world's leading economies. General Director of World Trade Organization Roberto Azevedo said in a speech: “Unless trade cooperation is ensured and steps are taken to reduce this tension, the trading system may suffer serious damage. Economic effects of this situation can be very severe. These economic impacts can cause serious difficulties for communities, companies and workers in trying to adapt to this new reality. Because millions of workers will need to find a new business and companies will have to find new growth sources for new products and communities.” The World Bank stressed that 3.4 billion people, almost half of the world’s population, had difficulty meeting their basic needs and they trying to get along with only $ 5.50 in a day. The World Bank announced that it plans to end the extreme poverty set by $ 1.90 per day by 2030. The number of people living on the extreme poverty line has fallen to 10 percent in 2015, but the rate of extreme poverty has slowed down. The report found that in more than half of the world's economies, revenues rose faster than average. The report pointed out the developments in shared welfare have slowed down, the regions with the weakest data to be used to determine the shared welfare level are the countries that need to be most developed.

In the context of the data released in domestic markets, domestic sales to foreigners in September increased by 151 percent compared to the previous month and became 5,615. According to result of Turkey Statistical Institute (TUIK), Istanbul was the first in September 2018 with 1799 home sales. Compared to the end of 2017 short-term external debt stock of Turkey, increase 3.6 percent and reach to $ 114.3 billion. During this period, short-term external debt stock stemming from banks fell 7.4 percent and reach to $ 62.3 billion. Short-term external debt stock of other sectors ration decreased by 0.4 percent and reach to $ 50.6 billion.

Following the announced data, dollar the lowest is 5.6030 TL and the highest 5.6797 TL in early processing 5.66 - 5.67 TL; euro the lowest 6.4232 TL and the highest 6.5123 TL, in the early transactions euro follows by 6.50 - 6.10 TL; Starlin is the lowest price is 7.3005 TL highest 7.4012TL, early transactions 7.39 - 7.40 TL.

The currencies are moving again with the release of Brunson


The currencies followed a moving course throughout the day after the American priest Andrew Brunson was released in Izmir on Friday. Following the decision of Brunson in the end-of-day; dollar see the lowest value as 5.8311 TL, the highest value 5.9867 TL, it was approximately 5.96-5.97 TL. Euro sees the lowest value as 6.7527 TL, the highest value 6.9489 TL; it was approximately 6.89-6.90 TL. Sterling sees the lowest value 7.6969 TL, the highest value 7.9359 TL; it was approximately 7.86 - 7.87 TL. While Brunson's release kept the world agenda intense, US President Donald Trump said: "My thoughts and prayers are with Brunson and we hope Brunson to return home safely in the near future."

Following the release of Brunson, decreased tensions between Turkey and the US, World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, said quite concerned about trade tensions between the US and China. He warned about if all countries escalate the customs threats, global growth will take a clear blow. While the meeting in Bali of International Money Fund and World Bank, “China's supplier countries to the trade war more studies are needed to understand the effects. China's economic growth slows down; however, growth of 6.5 percent is also quite good.” said press conference organizer Kim.

IMF President Christine Lagarde pointed out that the global public debt is at the highest level of all time, “The global economy is probably not strong enough. In environment where the global public debt is at the highest level of all time, any change may trigger capital outflow from emerging markets. Our suggestion is to reduce commercial tensions and work to achieve a stronger, fairer global trading system.”

In addition to the ongoing tensions between China and the United States, German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz, who spoke at the same meeting, pointed out that; “Trade tensions between the US and the European Union are not at a level that would turn into a possible trade war. There are very delicate and trusting negotiations between the US and the EU; they do not point to an increase in commercial conflict.”

Various disclosures and regulations in the crypto-currency markets, such as the global markets, caused a volatility in the market. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) increased operations on startups financed by ICOs. According to a joint survey conducted by Yahoo Finance and the UK-based market research company Decrypt, in which the SEC has issued orders to the former employees, some companies repay the investors and others commission's demands argued that it was incomprehensible.

Another statement, which is as effective as the SEC in the crypto-currency markets, was the statement by the US famous economist Nouriel Roubini to the Senate on Thursday. Roubini explained in his statement, Crypto denies boss of all fraudulent acts of currencies and technology of blockchain is the most exaggerated technology.

Until now, the only available side of Bitcoin was the sale of drugs, tax fraud, fleeing capital controls and money laundering. We have witnessed many incidents of the fact that crypto currency criminals have swindled hundreds of people. While the amount of energy spent by crypto currencies damages the environment extremely little, there are very few women or minorities around the blockchain.

Following the explanations, Bitcoin, the market capital of 109 billion 138 million dollars and the determinant of the crypto currency markets, was traded at $ 6,301 and the market volume of 2,079 crypto currencies was 202 billion 697 million dollars.

Global trade and regional security made busy EU-wide


While the additional custom duties of China and USA the global trade tensions continue, at a meeting for EU Digital and Economic Relations which Federal Ministers of 28 countries -that are members of EU- attended, Schramböck said, it will be our duty in the future to explain to the public that globalization is not protective measures and competition and innovation through open markets will be strengthened. EU trade agreements are an opportunity to shape globalization in European values. These agreements continue successfully like EU-Canada and EU-Japan agreements. She said: “We must continue to support our economic operators to expand the benefits of these agreements.” Meeting organized in Austria, the ministers talked about the challenges and opportunities presented by the EU trade policy. “Trade, business and future” the main items of the meeting, the organization took place about the revision of the World Trade Organization and the development of EU-US trade relations. European Commission (EU) Commission President Jean Claude Juncker made a statement on 5 October and said that for achieve long-term security EU must cooperate with Russia.

In the US, data released on October 5 showed that, in September unemployment ratio decrease 0.2% to 3.7% and non-agricultural employment increased to 134 thousand. Unemployment in the United States in September with a 0.2% reduction in the number of unemployed people fell to 6 million people by decreasing of 270 thousand people. While the US markets were on the rise, the S&P 500 started 0.11% and Russel 2000 started at 0.04% on the last trading day of the week. US Federal Reserve (FED) President Jerome Powell said that the interest rate of the US economy could rise above the predicted neutral level due to continued growth. "Current economic growth may continue for a long time" said Powell. Fed National Bank President Loretta Mester emphasize, on the returns of long-term US bonds, the US economy does not need to worry about bouncing happened on Wednesday and the need to monitor the divergence between other economies.

In the crypto-currency markets, various announcements have stimulated the market. The Malta Financial Services Supervisory Authority granted the Consul-Coin Kriptoara Fund a license and approved the first European-based and regulated cryptocurrency fund for financial products and companies based on blockchain technology. In addition, the US-based world-leading IT technology company IBM announced, Singapore-based shipping company Pacific International Lines (PIL) the new cooperation with the blockchain technology to promote the bill of lading. In the crypto-currency markets, there was an increase in Friday evening with the effect of positive news, while the market capitalization of Bitcoin, with a market volume of 114 billion 108 million dollars, increased by 0.30 percent in the last 24 hours to $ 6,593.

This week in the domestic market, is observed quietly. In the end of day for dollar data the lowest is 6.1044 and the highest 6.2136 TL in early processing 6.12- 6.3 TL; for euro data the lowest 7.0377 and the highest 7.1480 TL, in the early transactions euro follows by 7.06 - 7.07 TL; Starlin is after data the lowest price is 7.9907 highest 8.0869, early transactions 8.01 - 8.02 pounds for Starlin.


The Contract Between USA Canada and Mexico Overturned Global Markets

The new trade agreement, which the US, Canada and Mexico have signed in place of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), has caused global markets to overturned. The president of USA Donald Trump change the name NAFTA, which is used for 24 years, to USMCA (USA-Mexico-Canada contract because it was not fair enough. The new agreement will be signed by the leaders of member countries until November and it will be presented to the Congress. An authorized from Trump administration said, the contract rebalance US's relations with Canada and Mexico, and NAFTA will update adding items on digital commerce and  intellectual property.

At the White House Trump announced the trade tension end with Canada and he said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is “good man”. This new contact is important for US and for the world. He also argued that, this contract would be based on the principle of justice and reciprocity and NAFTA was the worst trade agreement ever made.

In a few hours later USA, Mexico and Canada announced a trade agreement in North America, Lagarde said that he alarmed threats to the global economy, the risks began global economic growth slowed down. Lagarde include, “global value chains can have a devastating impact on many countries including developed economies”.

While the US-China Pew Research Center reported that the new treaty would have a negative impact on global trade with US and Chinese trade tensions, according to an international survey conducted by the US think-tank Pew Research Center, the Chinese President Xi Jinping and the President of Russia rather than US President Donald Trump. It turned out that he trusted Vladimir Putin. %27 of the respondents stated that they relied on Trump in the international affairs, while a survey report said: “ a large majority believes that the United States does not consider the interests when it comes to making international policy decisions and does not support international global problems”.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov if some of counties from all over the world reject to use dollar it may cause US to lose his power.

Lavrov explain that, “the idea of using national currencies in calculations to avoid being too dependent on the dollar is being implemented for a long time in other lelations and with China”.

While tensions in global markets continues, import figures announced in domestic markets were effective on Monday. Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan stated that the highest monthly export figures in september were reached in september. Our september exports increased 22.6 percent and reach to 14.5 billion dollar. He said, in September imports fell down 18% but in export is in record high with %22.6 increasement.

Borsa Istanbul Index (BİST 100), closed in Monday with 89 thousand 537 points but with the following explanations of Pekcan, it started to day with 981 427 633 points with a decrease of 0.11 percent. The highest 5.9974 pounds and the lowest 5.9334 pounds of the dollar, 5.98 - 5.99 pounds, the highest 6.9236 pounds and the lowest 6.8689 pounds of the euro, 6.91 - 6.92 pounds and the highest 7.8048 pounds and the lowest 7.7350 pounds sterling, 7.79 -7.80 returned range.


The movement in the foreign currencies continues after the announcements regarding the internal markets.

In the internal markets, the foreign currencies which rose drastically last week with the effects of tension between USA and Turkey, dropped to 5.7013 in dollar, 6.5005 in euro and 7.2666 in GBP after the Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (TCMB) and BDDK intervened.

Minister of Treasury and Economy, Berat Albayrak, emphasized that there will be no compromises in the fiscal disciplines and stated that the control over capitals is not in their agenda and will never be in the teleconference he had with over 3000 foreign investors.

While the USA-Turkey tension was continuing, Stock Exchange Istanbul Index (BIST100) decreased by 1.97 percent to 88 thousand 535 pounds, while the return on 10-year government bonds increased by 0.98 to 21.67 level.

According to the numbers from the Central Bank, the short-term foreign debt stocks rose to 119.8 billion USD with an increase of 1.5% by the end of June from the beginning of the year. 18% of the total amount of the debt stock belongs to public sector while 0.3% belongs to the Central Bank and 81.7% to the private sector.

While the tension continues in the global markets, Chinese ministry of Commerce announced that a committee including the Deputy Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen will go to the USA for the trade meeting. Petroleum prices increased after the trade meeting signaled that trade meetings will continue. Brent Petroleum had an increase of 0.10% per barrel to 70.83 USD, while American light Petroleum had a decrease of 0.15% per barrel to 64.91 USD.

According to the numbers which were announced today, Euro Zone had a 100.7 billion Euros surplus in the first six months and 22.5 Billion Dollars surplus only in June. The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced that it had seven crypto-currency companies licensed to take action across the country, while the market was undergoing fluctuations, the first 10 crypto units with the highest volume in the last 24 hours increased.

The wavy situation in the markets continue as the tension between USA and Turkey continues and Trump doubling the taxes.

The wavy situation in the markets continue as the tension between USA and Turkey continues and Trump doubling the taxes.

The retreat parallel with the crisis because of the America Priest case rose again to see their new historical records. USD rose to 6.46, Euro to 7.20 and GBP to 8.27.

After the announcement of the USA Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Nauert on the negotiations to continue, USD had a rise in the global markets and the USD index to rise to the peak of the last 13 months, the foreign currencies continue their strong cruising in the internal markets. While the President of Turkey, Erdogan, stated that the economical war will continue about the foreign currencies, USA President Trump tweeted that the relations between Turkey and USA are not good and thus the extra taxes on aluminum and steel will be doubled. After Trump’s tweet, the extra taxes were raised to 20% on aluminum and 50% on steel.

In the Turkey’s news, yearly current account deficit became 57.39 Billion USD in June. According to the central bank’s numbers, the June deficit was 2.97 Billion USD, while it was 5ç89 Billion USD surplus in May.

Following the announcements of the President Erdogan’s, the Minister of Finance stated that in the future a much strict monetary policy will be followed.

According to the numbers from Turkish Institute of Statistics (TUIK), export unit index of import unit value index is calculated by dividing the external terms of trade in 2017 and happened as 107.1 in June, was lowered 3% points to 104.1 in June 2018. Foreign trade was in the level of 102.9 in May.

The wavy situation in the emtia markets, continues after the sanctions of USA on Iran and the trade war between USA and China. Petroleum prices started to fall again after the trade disagreements pressured on the demand with the worries on supply after USA’s sanctions on Iran to start again. According to the announcement made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday, the USA-China trade war can hurt the global demand on petroleum this year and next year; also, it can get very hard to keep the supply of petroleum after the sanctions of USA to Iran. Following the IEA announcements, Brent Petroleum, which Turkey also uses to determine the oil prices as a base, is in trading with a daily decrease of 0.22%, per gallon 71.91 USD; USA light petroleum is in trading with a daily decrease of 0.33 % 66.59 USD per gallon.

In the global markets, the UK economy grew 0.4 being parallel to the expectations in the second quarter of the year.  İn the numbers of the UK Statistics Office, UK’s GDP grew 0.1 % in June and the second quarter growth was 0.4 %.

The foreign currencies which were on the rise because of the tension between Turkey and USA, started to fall after the two foreign affairs minister meets.

The foreign currencies which were on the rise because of the tension between Turkey and USA, started to fall after the two foreign affairs minister meets.

After the USA took the decision on implementing sanctions on Turkey after the American priest, Andrew Craig Brunson was put on house arrest, US dollar rose to 5,4222 and euro to 6,1619 and British pound to 6,9016 liras. While the tension between the two countries continued, the assets with lira base got separated from the developing countries assets in a negative way. After the spokesperson for the USA Foreign Affairs Ministry, Heather Nauert, said that the meetings between the two foreign affairs ministers are a big process on this issue, the foreign currencies were on the fall, however they started to rise again today. The US Dollar was lowest 5.2182, highest 5.3072 and now between 5.27 – 5.28 lira; Euro was lowest 6.0541, highest 6.1562 and now between 6.11 – 6.12; British Pound was lowest 6.7592, highest 6.8519 and now 6.79 – 6.80. The consumer prices which were under expectations rose 0.55 % in July and 15.85 % in year base.

In the global markets; China announced that they will put extra 25% tax on the products from USA which is worth 16 Billion USD. In the statement, it was mentioned that the American petroleum and automobiles which are manufactured in the USA are included in this tax. China’s foreign trade surplus has retreated to 28 Billion USD which was under the expectation of 39.33 Billion USD.

USA’s sanctions on Iran are starting again on Tuesday, which caused the petroleum prices to lower a little bit with the worry of scarcity in the markets. Brent crude oil ,also used as a criterion in defining the fuel prices, is traded from 74.45 dollars per barrel with a daily percentage decline of %0.27, is  US light oil are traded from 68.82 dollar with a daily percentage decline of 0,51. Türkiye'nin de akaryakıt fiyatlarını belirmede ölçüt olarak kullandığı Brent ham petrolü günlük yüzde 0.27 düşüşle varil başına 74.45 dolardan, ABD hafif petrolü de günlük yüzde 0.51 düşüşle 68.82 dolardan işlem görüyor.

 

The currencies which rose with USA’s sanction decision, went down again with the inflation rates which were under expectations.

The currencies which rose with USA’s sanction decision, went down again with the inflation rates which were under expectations.

Even though FED kept the interest rates stable between 1.75 – 2.00, the expectation of continuing monetary tightening and the sanction decision after the American priest Andrew Brunson’s house arrest due to his health conditions caused the foreign currencies to rise again. With the effects of these developments, USD, Euro and British Pound renew their records and became 5.1154, 5.9341, 6.6628 respectively.

In the extent of the new announcements in the USA, the unemployment rate retreated to 3.9%, the lowest rate of the last 50 years, the USD continued going down. The USD rate, which reached the level of 5.11 today, went back down to 5.06 after the inflation and NFP rates were announced lower than they were expected.

Following the USA’s sanction announcements, Erol Bilecik, the president of Turkish Industry and Business People (TÜSİAD) said that these sanctions are not acceptable and that they are against to the nature of the strategical alliance between USA and Turkey, in his written declaration. “We hope that the relations between the two countries will be recovered in a constructive way.” Said Bilecik.

The wavy situation in the global markets, continued after the Bank of England (BOE) announced their interest rate decision. BOE decided to raise their interest rates 0.25 base points to 0.75%. The bank kept their assets buying at the same level.

USA’s foreign trade deficit rose to 46.3 billion dollars in the month of June and continued rising after the worries of Trade War with China, Mexico and Canada. Before the NFP numbers were announced in the USA, the for the trade war rose again with China’s retaliation with putting extra tax to the goods coming from USA worthy of 60 billion USD. The indexes are mixed in Asia after the NFP’s are announced in the USA and Apple reaching its market value to 1 trillion dollars. While the NFP rates could not exceed the expectations in July with a raise of 157 thousand, the expected raise was 190 thousand.

Euro Area Composite PMI fell to 54.3 from 54.9 of June levels. According to IHS Markit data, business confidence is at the lowest level since November of 2016. Euro Area Service PMI declined to 54.2 in July from 55.2 in June and reached its lowest level in the last 18 months. PMI data continued to fluctuate in European indices.

The worries of the Trade War and the announcements from the Central Bank made the market continue in it’s instability

The worries of the Trade War and the announcements from the Central Bank made the market continue in it’s instability

While the additional new tariffs from the USA against many Asian countries especially China, regarding to the “America First” policy, caused the worries for a trade war rise again. China and European Union launched counter-tariffs against USA, therefore the global trade tension rises during the month of July.

The instability in Internal and Global Markets during July remains after the Central Bank’s Monetary Policies Association’s decision to not the increase the political interest rates from 17.75. Also the Central Bank’s third inflation report regarding to inflation forecast for the end of the year from 8.4% to 13.4% and European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision on keeping the interest rates stable causes the instability to remain.

While Dollar was between 4.60-4.92 during July, Euro was between 5.37-5.76; BIST100 99K 253, Euro 7.77, dollar 4.92 and British pound was 6.59 in the internal markets.

President of the United States of America, Donald Trump’s insist on sanctions for Iran and OPEC’s forecast on softening the production regulations caused a decrease on petroleum prices. Also Trump stated that he was positive about a meeting with Iran on the topics of the sanctions and USA-Iran relations, however, The President of Iran, Hassan Rouhani refused in this case. In the light of these developments, Brent Petrolium, whose prices are being used as base by Turkey, decreased their prices to 72.96 $ from 76.79 $ per barrel by the end of July.

Foreign Trade Deficit, the most important component of the deficit stated by Turkish Statistical Institute in July due to a faster increase in imports than exports in June, decreased 9.1 percent to 5 billion 497 million dollars compared last year's same month. The related datas also stated that Turkey's exports are mostly to the European Union (EU) and Turkey's EU exports’ increase of 6.4 percent compared to the previous year June, as 6 billion 630 million dollars.